Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Is This Bye Bye for Billary?

Greetings from Scottsdale.
Hillary Clinton is going to lose the NH primary and then she will lose South Carolina and the press is freaking out about it. Why? This happens every 4 years.
The front runners often stumble and usually fall in open primaries. If the front runner always snagged the nomination then Gary Hart would have run against Reagan in '84 and against Bush in '88. Remember Howard Dean's "insurmountable lead" in Iowa and New Hampshire in late 2003?
Barack Obama will probably win the Democratic nod, which will make for an interesting 2008.
I'm not an Obama fan but as a former Gingrich era GOP Hill staffer, I have to admit that my sinful nature certainly enjoys watching the Machiavellian Billary finally get their walking papers.
BUT who will win the GOP primary in NH? I think it is actually going to be very close with Romney and McCain separated by only a few points. The near battle in the gulf with members of Iran's radical Revolutionary Guard has to help McCain but the Senator has to nab a large number of independents and they look like they are moving en Mass to the Obama camp which helps Romney. Should be interesting.
UPDATE: Well, I am neither a prophet, nor the son of a prophet and I work for a non-profit! Billary lived to fight another day. I'm listening to her acceptance speech right now. Interesting that the independents did not turn out in expected numbers for Obama but they did for McCain! Now it is even more interesting as there really isn't A frontrunner for either party.